The Race for 2020

Only five cities have decided to throw their proverbial hats into the Olympic ring for the chance to host the Games of the XXXII Olympiad:  Baku (Azerbaijan), Doha (Qatar), Istanbul (Turkey), Madrid (Spain), and Tokyo (Japan).  

Rome was planning on joining the race and many considered it a front-runner.  At the last minute, however, Italian officials decided it would not be in the country's best interests, given the recent debt crisis which resulted in the resignation of playboy (or old man, rather) prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi.

On a bizarre note, Las Vegas decided that it would side-step the United States Olympic Committee and submit an unsanctioned Application Letter to the International Olympic Committee back in August of last year.  The USOC, in its infinite wisdom, decided that it would not pursue a bid due to the status of its ongoing negotiations with the IOC regarding television revenue sharing - an issue of contention that most likely derailed the bids of both New York 2012 and Chicago 2016.  On top of the fact that Las Vegas has nothing to offer as an Olympic city, this aggressive and disrespectful move won't exactly earn it a spot in the hearts of the USOC and IOC members (whom I'm pretty sure decide - and decide alone - which city eventually hosts the Games).  Sorry, Las Vegas, an Olympic cauldron on the top of the Stratosphere is not in your future.

South Africa was also considering a bid, probably from Cape Town or Durban, given its successful hosting of the 2010 World Cup.  Recognizing that the two events are very different in size and scope, the government decided that it wasn't quite ready for the Olympic Games.  But keep a look out for a 2024 bid:  IOC President Jacques Rogge recently said that the IOC is very interested in sending the Games to the African continent.

Baku, with a population of just over 2 million, is the capital and largest city of the former Soviet state of Azerbaijan.  It previously bid for the 2016 Games, but failed to make the short list as a Candidate City.  While the city currently lacks the infrastructure necessary to host an event of such a grand scale, the country's vast oil wealth and slightly authoritarian government would allow it to quickly build glittering new arenas, roads, hotels and subway lines (Beijing, anyone?).  A few more drawbacks:  Baku is located in a particularly volatile region, cozily nestled between Iran and Chechnya and just a stone's throw from Abkhazia and South Ossetia... oh, and it hasn't exactly been getting along with its other neighbor, Armenia, regarding the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh (there was a war in the 1990s that sort-of remains unsettled... no big deal).

Doha, fresh off its country's (Qatar) big win as the host of the 2022 World Cup, is also a repeat bidder from the 2016 race.  Like Baku, Doha failed to make the cut for Candidate status, but unlike Baku, it was mainly due to its plan to host the Games in October to take advantage of slightly cooler temperatures.  Personally, I'm not quite sure why this was an issue, since Sydney 2000 took place in late September and ended in early October.  Doha is one of the world's fastest growing cities and Qatar has the highest per capita GDP of any nation, made possible by - again - vast oil wealth and an economically forward-thinking Emir, who has positioned his kingdom as the region's center for education, commerce, sports and culture.  If the IOC elevates it to Candidate status this time, Doha will certainly be a strong contender.

Istanbul (not Constantinople) has been bidding for the Olympic Games since the early 1990s, losing out four times to Sydney (2000), Athens (2004), Beijing (2008), and London (2012).  If the Turkish city loses for a fifth time, it would be tied with Budapest (Hungary) for the second-most failed bids without ever hosting the Games; but no one holds a candle (or torch, for that matter) to Detroit, Michigan.  However, Istanbul has a lot going for it:  It already has an Olympic stadium, the Turkish economy is fairly strong (9% GDP growth in 2010), its mass transit is well developed and modern(-izing), and its society blends both liberal European and traditional Middle Eastern sensibilities. Perhaps fifth time's the charm?

Poor Madrid, always the bridesmaid, never the bride.  Silver medalist in the bids for 1972 and 2016, and bronze in 2012 (they don't actually award medals to the losers), the Spanish capital is ignoring its current economic woes and bidding for 2020 anyway.  I suppose when one is so close to winning, one keeps trying - plus, the Olympic Village could be used as housing for some of the four million unemployed Spaniards... perfect, right?  With the 2012 Olympics in London and the 2014 winter edition being hosted by Sochi (Russia), along with its obvious economic issues, Madrid should have followed Rome's lead and sat-out this round.  I believe Madrid would make an excellent host, but not in 2020.

Rounding out the 2020 list is the Japanese capital and 1964 Summer Olympic host, Tokyo.  Like the other cities (except Istanbul), it, too, tried for 2016, where it was rated as the technically best bid but ultimately lost to Madrid and Rio in the second round of voting.  This time around, Tokyo will be drawing much inspiration from the country's tragic earthquake and tsunami and impressive subsequent rebuilding. I don't have much to say about it - Tokyo is a world-class city that is certainly capable of hosting the Olympics again.  However, Japan's economy, outside of the auto industry, hasn't been too great in recent decades, and the 2018 Winter Games were just awarded to Pyeongchang in nearby South Korea, so this bid is not without its drawbacks.

Overall, this is a very strong field of potential hosts and I foresee at least four of them (sorry, Baku) making the cut as Candidate Cities.  I'm putting my money on Istanbul given Turkey's robust economy, its recent investment in infrastructure, and the IOC's desire to go boldly where no Olympics has gone before.  However, it's a long time between now and September 7, 2013, when the IOC will decide the winner at its session in Buenos Aires (Argentina), and the horse-trading has only just begun.

The short list will be announced in a few months on May 23, so watch this space for an update.